There's a website out there that mathematically calculates a prediction for Date of Referral (DOR) based on a Log in Date (LID) and the rate of referral over the past several years. At one point, CCAA was matching two months worth of LID in one month. I just did a quick search because I know I've read the real dates, but can't find it so you'll have to settle for an example; in a hypothetical month of July, the workers at CCAA matched families who were LID in November and December of the hypothetically previous year. NOW, the CCAA is matching about 2 weeks worth of LID per month. Referrals sent and receieved Feb 2, 2007 represented the work done between Jan 1 and Feb 2, matching dates between Sept 29 and Oct 13, 2005. Back to the website, www.ChinaAdoptionForecast.com - they look at how fast and how slow the CCAA has matched in the past and weight these 'velocities' with probabilities going forward to come up with a magical - though largely meaningless - predicted date of referral, AND a best and worst case scenario. I plugged those three dates into a 'countdown' clock and have added it here on the blog. Don't be frightened by the 2012 date - that's bordering on rediculous.
From what I've read, these predictions seem pretty accurate. Our agency suggests these are a little long as they think we'll get a referral in Oct 2008, not December 2008. Another site I watch closely has provided a 'calculation' to predict your referral which actually puts us in Summer 2008 (sounds better, eh?). Those are all included within the B/W cases by the Forecast...
Guess I'm just killing time. I'm a planner... I like to KNOW. I can deal with the wait, but would feel MUCH better if I had a specific time frame to expect.
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