So, I did all that math and estimated four years 7.5 into 30 K, gives us 4. BUT I also said some of those 30 000 must be behind us, and then promptly forgot to include that fact in my calculations.
There are currently 20 months of LIDs waiting to be referred - November 2005 to end of June 2007. Some months are big, some are small, but for sake of sanity, I assume they even out over 30 000 dossiers. We are a week short of being 9 months into our wait, so there are 11 months ahead of us, 9 months behind us... of those 30 000 dossiers, only just over half of them are ahead of us. Let's assume the worst, and say we're number 20 001 in line of 30K. If I divide the number of families in front of us in line, by the average of 7.5K referrals a year, I get about 2.5 years from now - late 2009, early 2010. MUCH better, I'd say! If I divide the number of families ahead of us in line by the average of 600 referrals a month, I get about 3 years - summer 2010. Still better than 2011.
Right now, things are slow, but rumours say it will speed up at the end of the year as, as I've mentioned, months after November 2005 have fewer families registered. Let's hope!
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