Our adoption agency publishes an email update every Friday. This was in last Friday's:
Adoption is now and will always be one manifestation of a society's changing mores. For instance in Canada through the 1970’s and 80’s, adoption placements, both in the public and private spheres, declined radically. Adoption seemingly became anathema for many who might once have considered it as a first choice for an unplanned pregnancy. History repeats itself endlessly and what happened to adoption in Canada and the other industrialized countries of the world is now happening in China.
As you all know the waits in China have more than doubled in the last fifteen months. I am repeatedly asked why and, moreover, what the future might hold. While I am not a seer, my trip, and my many conversations with all manner of officials connected to adoption makes it clear what has transpired, and what the future indeed might hold. I have already in essence explained it by highlighting the changing social mores and economic circumstances here. There is less and less reason for the abandonment of babies. Families are less pressured to abandon their girls in an effort to have a boy. There is not only growing awareness and acceptance that girls can look after their parents in old age as well as boys, but the government is offering incentives to families to retain their daughters and also to assist seniors as! in more developed countries through minimal monthly support payments much like our OAS. The improving economic situation of many families means some can pay a fine to keep a second child regardless of gender; many more Chinese families are adopting girls as their second or even first child as they can now afford to do so. In short, all the reasons that lead families here to abandon their girls, who then were placed abroad, are evaporating. There is less and less need for girls to leave their birth family and/or their birth country. Unless there is a complete economic collapse here, or a quantum shift in thinking, I can only see children in need of families will also continue to decline.
By most estimates there were 30% fewer children requiring international adoption in 2006 than 2005. That 30% is predicted to continue although to what degree over what time no one can say, only that the situation will persist. What was made clear to us is that longer waits can be expected. For those of you in the queue I know this is the most unwelcome of news. While there is no indication that China will close or adoption disappear, it will continue to shrink, as did Ontario, as did South Korea, as will all countries that start down the road to prosperity. Once a country can afford to support all its parents to some degree, adoptions will decline.
Steve has been reminding me all along that this "is not a sure thing" but I didn't want to hear it. Although the author of this email says "While there is no indication that China will close or adoption disappear" it fails to sound reassuring.
Worry-wart and Information seeker I am, I fired off this email in response:
"I just got home from a weekend away and read the update, including your update about the circumstances in China. I think it's wonderful that things are looking up for the Chinese people, and fewer babies are abandoned. From a selfish point of view, though, I wonder what that means for us???
We are LID Oct 11, 2006 for our fourth child, first from China. Knowing (at least some of) you have been through the process, I don't have to go into just how invested we are in this process; our child has a name, her siblings talk about her, not to mention the financial strain we have incurred to get to this point. From your last update, I got the distinct sense that you feel adoptions from China may grow fewer and fewer until they are a thing of the past. What does that mean for those of us with a two year wait ahead of us? What are the chances that by the time (or before the time) that our turn comes, they will close down the process and leave us "s.o.o.l"?
I know none of you have a crystal ball to predict with scientific certainty (is crystal ball and scientific certainty an oxymoron?) what will happen with respect to Chinese adoptions... but since you are a large company, with a strong history and experience to draw upon, I suspect you can offer some kind of "best guess". I am somewhat reassured by the fact that your groups grow behind ours (#275) meaning you seem confident enough that THOSE adoptions will come to pass that you take on new clients, process their documentations and present them to the CCAA, taking earned payment as you go. That said, the message from the update seemed contradictory... or at least daunting to the "predictable" end result once provided in a Chinese adoption. I know there are no guarantees in IA, I've heard that many times from the beginning of our journey, but there ARE probabilities, and I need to know what you think those are. You mentioned Ontario and South Korea adoptions - how did they end? Was it sudden? Was it gradual? Were there warnings? Is there other history to draw expectations and guess from?
I'm grateful that your agency has been up front with respect to wait times, while other agencies have been less than honest - I'd rather hear and prepare for a bad truth, than cling to a good lie. SO, that said, I am asking you if there is any reason, beyond the "nothing is for sure" line to be concerned that this adoption will not come to pass. I am very worried that we'll wait our 2-3 years and then be told "sorry, no go". By then we will have spent too much time and too much money to find an alternative path - if we haven't already...
I have read in your literature that the Green Stream process must be started at the homestudy point... but have heard of other families switching post-LID. Initially we declined to follow that path b/c the process times seemed better for our family's birth order to wait for the NSN route. Now the waits for both have increased, and our youngest has aged, it is likely that any child we adopt will be younger than she. In the end, we want a child. Is the Green Stream process something we can or should consider? (if we were able to, and chose to switch, would that process have a shorter wait time to increase our likelihood of receiving a child). I know that "to get a child faster" is not a reason to go the "Green Stream" process, but if it's to receive a child or NOT... I have thought of looking to other countries, Ethiopia, Vietnam, but their processes seem uncertain, the expense to change directions may be inhibiting and I still feel tied to China - should I be more open minded, are there better options there?
I hope you realize that I'm not even sure what I'm asking of you... other than your best guess of what our adoption path may be in the next two to three years. I can wait, if impatiently, as long as I can be comfortable knowing we will find our child in the end. The thought of waiting with such expectations only to be disappointed in the home stretch literally scares me. We will NOT be pulling our file, or walking away from our adoption, even if the chances were slim, but we'd approach the journey differently if we knew it was a good chance we'd come to a dead end. I am asking your opinion, without the "cover" of the truth that is "nothing is for certain, we can't guarantee, IA is too unpredictable, etc" (and I DO realize that's the truth, not a line).
I appreciate your time and consideration for my paranoid questions - After all, I'm a mom, right? I'm already worried about finding a child I haven't met in person, but whom I believe belongs with us in the end."
There's nothing else I can say - that's why I cc'd the email here. I'm terrified by their last update and the possibilities that come from it. This child we're seeking is ours, is already a part of our family, already in our hearts, and losing her is a thought that makes me literally sick.
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